Models
40ranked models
4targets
6bidding zones
Bars show error against repeating last week: shorter is better.
1t0-gamma with weather inputsFoundation model0.332Timestral with weather inputsFoundation model0.333TimesFM 3 with weather inputsFoundation model0.364TimeH2O with weather inputsFoundation model0.305Chronos-2 with weather inputsFoundation model0.366Grid operators' forecast at the cut-offGrid operator forecast0.537t0-beta with weather inputsFoundation model0.398LightGBM (tuned)Gradient boosting0.379Tabby with weather inputsFoundation model0.3710Tabby (pretrained) with weather inputsFoundation model0.3711TiRex-2 with weather inputsFoundation model0.3912t0-alpha with weather inputsFoundation model0.4113TimeH2OFoundation model0.4214LightGBM with weatherGradient boosting0.4915TimesFM 2.5 with weather inputsFoundation model0.4816Toto 2 (1B)Foundation model0.5517TimestralFoundation model0.5418Linear regression with weather (2 years)Linear regression0.5719Toto 2Foundation model0.5720t0-gammaFoundation model0.5621Chronos-2Foundation model0.6122Tabby (pretrained)Foundation model0.5823TimesFM 3Foundation model0.6324TabbyFoundation model0.6025TimesFM 2.5Foundation model0.6326Chronos-BoltFoundation model0.6327TiRex-2Foundation model0.6228Linear regression with weatherLinear regression0.6129TiRexFoundation model0.6530Moirai 2Foundation model0.6631t0-betaFoundation model0.6432t0-alphaFoundation model0.6333SundialFoundation model0.6734LightGBM on lagsGradient boosting0.7135Linear regression on lagsLinear regression0.6936TotoFoundation model0.8237TinyTimeMixerFoundation model0.7738Naive dailyBaseline1.0139Naive weeklyBaseline1.0040ClimatologyBaseline1.13