Baseline · Foretec

Naive daily

naive_daily

#38of 40 ranked models
818Elo rating
33days run live

Error over time

00.51This modelField median2 Oct 20263 Nov 20264 Oct 2026: 0.8335 Oct 2026: 0.8196 Oct 2026: 0.9997 Oct 2026: 1.1188 Oct 2026: 1.0559 Oct 2026: 1.07410 Oct 2026: 1.40011 Oct 2026: 1.74312 Oct 2026: 1.85913 Oct 2026: 1.73214 Oct 2026: 1.62215 Oct 2026: 1.68316 Oct 2026: 1.72517 Oct 2026: 1.49718 Oct 2026: 1.44419 Oct 2026: 1.47520 Oct 2026: 1.45521 Oct 2026: 1.47522 Oct 2026: 1.42723 Oct 2026: 1.39124 Oct 2026: 1.34525 Oct 2026: 1.17426 Oct 2026: 1.15027 Oct 2026: 1.29928 Oct 2026: 1.26829 Oct 2026: 1.23730 Oct 2026: 1.23731 Oct 2026: 1.2381 Nov 2026: 1.1762 Nov 2026: 0.9583 Nov 2026: 0.774

Seven-day running error against repeating last week, where 1 is no better than that.

In the field

Day-ahead priceDay-ahead price: 0.478#34
WindWind: 0.645#39
SolarSolar: 0.972#38
LoadLoad: 1.961#35

Each dot is a ranked model; further left is better. The line marks repeating last week.

Rank by zone

Price
Wind
Solar
Load
BE
#35
#37
#37
#40
NL
#36
#34
#39
#39
FR
#35
#38
#32
#39
DE-LU
#35
#35
#31
#40
DK1
#35
#37
#39
#37
DK2
#35
#35
#39
#38

Bigger is a better place among the ranked models in that series.

What it sees

History
WeatherICON-EU · GFS · IFS
Load forecast
Fuel prices
Calendar