Baseline · Foretec

Naive weekly

naive_weekly

#39of 40 ranked models
760Elo rating
33days run live

Error over time

00.51This modelField median2 Oct 20263 Nov 20264 Oct 2026: 1.0005 Oct 2026: 1.0006 Oct 2026: 1.0007 Oct 2026: 1.0008 Oct 2026: 1.0009 Oct 2026: 1.00010 Oct 2026: 1.00011 Oct 2026: 1.00012 Oct 2026: 1.00013 Oct 2026: 1.00014 Oct 2026: 1.00015 Oct 2026: 1.00016 Oct 2026: 1.00017 Oct 2026: 1.00018 Oct 2026: 1.00019 Oct 2026: 1.00020 Oct 2026: 1.00021 Oct 2026: 1.00022 Oct 2026: 1.00023 Oct 2026: 1.00024 Oct 2026: 1.00025 Oct 2026: 1.00026 Oct 2026: 1.00027 Oct 2026: 1.00028 Oct 2026: 1.00029 Oct 2026: 1.00030 Oct 2026: 1.00031 Oct 2026: 1.0001 Nov 2026: 1.0002 Nov 2026: 1.0003 Nov 2026: 1.000

Seven-day running error against repeating last week, where 1 is no better than that.

In the field

Day-ahead priceDay-ahead price: 1.000#38
WindWind: 1.000#40
SolarSolar: 1.000#37
LoadLoad: 1.000#31

Each dot is a ranked model; further left is better. The line marks repeating last week.

Rank by zone

Price
Wind
Solar
Load
BE
#38
#40
#40
#31
NL
#38
#40
#38
#32
FR
#38
#39
#37
#36
DE-LU
#38
#39
#29
#33
DK1
#38
#39
#38
#34
DK2
#38
#39
#35
#33

Bigger is a better place among the ranked models in that series.

What it sees

History
WeatherICON-EU · GFS · IFS
Load forecast
Fuel prices
Calendar