Gradient boosting · Foretec

LightGBM (tuned)

lgbm_prod

#8of 40 ranked models
1129Elo rating
19days run live

Error over time

00.51This modelField median2 Oct 20263 Nov 202618 Oct 2026: 0.67619 Oct 2026: 0.65520 Oct 2026: 0.61521 Oct 2026: 0.59722 Oct 2026: 0.56223 Oct 2026: 0.53624 Oct 2026: 0.51125 Oct 2026: 0.46626 Oct 2026: 0.47127 Oct 2026: 0.48128 Oct 2026: 0.47029 Oct 2026: 0.45730 Oct 2026: 0.46831 Oct 2026: 0.4471 Nov 2026: 0.4102 Nov 2026: 0.3513 Nov 2026: 0.398

Seven-day running error against repeating last week, where 1 is no better than that.

In the field

Day-ahead priceDay-ahead price: 0.271#14
WindWind: 0.147#3
SolarSolar: 0.368#9
LoadLoad: 0.707#13

Each dot is a ranked model; further left is better. The line marks repeating last week.

Rank by zone

Price
Wind
Solar
Load
BE
#14
#3
#1
#26
NL
#9
#2
#1
#27
FR
#14
#2
#13
#12
DE-LU
#14
#3
#1
#1
DK1
#11
#7
#8
#8
DK2
#7
#3
#13
#18

Bigger is a better place among the ranked models in that series.

What it sees

History
WeatherICON-EU · GFS · IFS
Load forecast
Fuel prices
Calendar