Foundation model · Amazon · Oct 2025

Chronos-2 with weather inputs

chronos2_cov

#5of 40 ranked models
1177Elo rating
32days run live

Error over time

00.51This modelField median2 Oct 20263 Nov 20265 Oct 2026: 0.3866 Oct 2026: 0.4517 Oct 2026: 0.5538 Oct 2026: 0.5279 Oct 2026: 0.50710 Oct 2026: 0.52711 Oct 2026: 0.60512 Oct 2026: 0.61313 Oct 2026: 0.58714 Oct 2026: 0.52815 Oct 2026: 0.54316 Oct 2026: 0.55417 Oct 2026: 0.53818 Oct 2026: 0.50819 Oct 2026: 0.49420 Oct 2026: 0.47421 Oct 2026: 0.47122 Oct 2026: 0.45423 Oct 2026: 0.45724 Oct 2026: 0.47125 Oct 2026: 0.46726 Oct 2026: 0.48427 Oct 2026: 0.50528 Oct 2026: 0.47729 Oct 2026: 0.46430 Oct 2026: 0.46231 Oct 2026: 0.4301 Nov 2026: 0.3992 Nov 2026: 0.3373 Nov 2026: 0.353

Seven-day running error against repeating last week, where 1 is no better than that.

In the field

Day-ahead priceDay-ahead price: 0.234#2
WindWind: 0.187#9
SolarSolar: 0.355#5
LoadLoad: 0.678#9

Each dot is a ranked model; further left is better. The line marks repeating last week.

Rank by zone

Price
Wind
Solar
Load
BE
#7
#11
#11
#15
NL
#7
#10
#5
#8
FR
#10
#12
#8
#9
DE-LU
#4
#13
#3
#19
DK1
#4
#13
#9
#21
DK2
#3
#9
#3
#10

Bigger is a better place among the ranked models in that series.

What it sees

History
WeatherICON-EU · GFS · IFS
Load forecast
Fuel prices
Calendar